Assessing rodents as carriers of pathogenic Leptospira species in the U.S. Virgin Islands and their risk to animal and public health.

Leptospirosis is a global zoonotic disease caused by pathogenic bacteria of the genus Leptospira. We sought to determine if rodents in U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) are carriers of Leptospira. In total, 140 rodents were sampled, including 112 Mus musculus and 28 Rattus rattus. A positive carrier status was identified for 64/140 (45.7%); 49 (35.0%) were positive by dark-field microscopy, 60 (42.9%) by culture, 63 (45.0%) by fluorescent antibody testing, and 61 (43.6%) by real-time polymerase chain reaction (rtPCR). Molecular typing indicated that 48 isolates were L. borgpetersenii and 3 were L. kirschneri; the remaining nine comprised mixed species. In the single culture-negative sample that was rtPCR positive, genotyping directly from the kidney identified L. interrogans. Serotyping of L. borgpetersenii isolates identified serogroup Ballum and L. kirschneri isolates as serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae. These results demonstrate that rodents are significant Leptospira carriers and adds to understanding the ecoepidemiology of leptospirosis in USVI.

Estimating the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission in South Africa, 2016-2018: A hidden Markov modelling study.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for approximately 10 months each year during a three-year study period for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant's age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9-80.5%) than older children (5-17 years-old) (31.7-50.0%) or adults (11.5-23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7-15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91-1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2-12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6-6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507-714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1-435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission.

Efficient and targeted COVID-19 border testing via reinforcement learning.

Throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, countries have relied on a variety of ad hoc border control protocols to allow for non-essential travel while safeguarding public health, from quarantining all travellers to restricting entry from select nations on the basis of population-level epidemiological metrics such as cases, deaths or testing positivity rates1,2. Here we report the design and performance of a reinforcement learning system, nicknamed Eva. In the summer of 2020, Eva was deployed across all Greek borders to limit the influx of asymptomatic travellers infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and to inform border policies through real-time estimates of COVID-19 prevalence. In contrast to country-wide protocols, Eva allocated Greece's limited testing resources on the basis of incoming travellers' demographic information and testing results from previous travellers. By comparing Eva's performance against modelled counterfactual scenarios, we show that Eva identified 1.85 times as many asymptomatic, infected travellers as random surveillance testing, with up to 2-4 times as many during peak travel, and 1.25-1.45 times as many asymptomatic, infected travellers as testing policies that utilize only epidemiological metrics. We demonstrate that this latter benefit arises, at least partially, because population-level epidemiological metrics had limited predictive value for the actual prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic travellers and exhibited strong country-specific idiosyncrasies in the summer of 2020. Our results raise serious concerns on the effectiveness of country-agnostic internationally proposed border control policies3 that are based on population-level epidemiological metrics. Instead, our work represents a successful example of the potential of reinforcement learning and real-time data for safeguarding public health.

Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households.

Since its emergence, the phenomenon of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by seemingly healthy individuals has become a major challenge in the effort to achieve control of the pandemic. Identifying the modes of transmission that drive this phenomenon is a perquisite in devising effective control measures, but to date it is still under debate. To address this problem, we have formulated a detailed mathematical model of discrete human actions (such as coughs, sneezes, and touching) and the continuous decay of the virus in the environment. To take into account those discrete and continuous events we have extended the common modelling approach and employed a hybrid stochastic mathematical framework. This allowed us to calculate higher order statistics which are crucial for the reconstruction of the observed distributions. We focused on transmission within a household, the venue with the highest risk of infection and validated the model results against the observed secondary attack rate and the serial interval distribution. Detailed analysis of the model results identified the dominant driver of pre-symptomatic transmission as the contact route via hand-face transfer and showed that wearing masks and avoiding physical contact are an effective prevention strategy. These results provide a sound scientific basis to the present recommendations of the WHO and the CDC.

Pessoas assintomáticas podem transmitir Covid-19

A matéria aborda estudos e opiniões de diversos cientistas sobre as pesquisas para compreender as formas de contaminação do novo coronavírus, sendo que alguns estudos já apontam que indivíduos assintomáticos, que não manifestam sintomas, podem infectar outras pessoas.

The impact of super-spreader cities, highways, and intensive care availability in the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil.

Although international airports served as main entry points for SARS-CoV-2, the factors driving the uneven geographic spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil remain mostly unknown. Here we show that three major factors influenced the early macro-geographical dynamics of COVID-19 in Brazil. Mathematical modeling revealed that the "super-spreading city" of São Paulo initially accounted for more than 85% of the case spread in the entire country. By adding only 16 other spreading cities, we accounted for 98-99% of the cases reported during the first 3 months of the pandemic in Brazil. Moreover, 26 federal highways accounted for about 30% of SARS-CoV-2's case spread. As cases increased in the Brazilian interior, the distribution of COVID-19 deaths began to correlate with the allocation of the country's intensive care units (ICUs), which is heavily weighted towards state capitals. Thus, severely ill patients living in the countryside had to be transported to state capitals to access ICU beds, creating a "boomerang effect" that contributed to skew the distribution of COVID-19 deaths. Therefore, if (i) a lockdown had been imposed earlier on in spreader-capitals, (ii) mandatory road traffic restrictions had been enforced, and (iii) a more equitable geographic distribution of ICU beds existed, the impact of COVID-19 in Brazil would be significantly lower.

A Cluster Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 and the Prevention and Control Measures in the Early Stage of the Epidemic in Xi'an, China, 2020.

BACKGROUND At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, a cluster outbreak caused by an imported case from Hubei Province was reported in Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China. Ten patients from 2 families and 1 hospital were involved in the transmission. MATERIAL AND METHODS We conducted an epidemiological investigation to identify the cluster transmission of COVID-19. The demographic, epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and cluster characteristics were described and analyzed. RESULTS From January 27 to February 13, 2020, a total of 10 individuals were confirmed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the nucleic acid testing of nasopharyngeal swabs from 2 families and 1 hospital. Among the confirmed cases, 7 had atypical clinical symptoms and 3 were asymptomatic. The median times from onset to diagnosis and to discharge were 3.5 days (range, 1-5 days) and 19.5 days (range, 16-38 days), respectively. There were 4 patients whose exposure dates were 1, 3, 3, and 2 days earlier than the onset dates of their previous-generation cases, respectively. Four prevention and control measures were effectively used to interrupt the disease transmission. CONCLUSIONS SARS-CoV-2 can be easily transmitted within families and in hospitals, and asymptomatic patients could act as a source of disease transmission. The results of this outbreak at the early epidemic stage support the recommendation that individuals with confirmed COVID-19 and all their close contacts should be subjected to medical quarantined observation and nucleic acid screening as early as possible, even if they do not have any symptoms. Meanwhile, people in high-risk areas should improve their protective measures.

[Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through contact with a SARS-CoV-2-infected individual in the presymptomatic or asymptomatic state in Japan: A case series].

Objectives　There is little evidence supporting the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from presymptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals in Japan, where the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is lower than that in other developed countries. This study aimed to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission can occur from presymptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals.Methods　We surveyed all directors of Japanese public health centers for index cases and secondary patients who possibly contracted SARS-CoV-2 infection from a presymptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected individual who came under their care before June 20, 2020. The professional staff at the centers routinely perform contact tracing of infected persons based on the guidelines of the Infection Control Act. Four authors independently reviewed reports of 9 index cases of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals with 17 secondary patients from 8 prefectures and examined the cases to determine whether transmission from a SARS-CoV-2-infected individual in the presymptomatic or asymptomatic state occurred.Results　We reported 7 index cases with 13 secondary patients. 1) An elderly woman acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection from her sustained asymptomatic granddaughter at home, 2) 4 guests and 1 accompanying child waiting at a hair salon acquired infection from the presymptomatic female hair stylist, 3) 2 inpatients acquired infection from a presymptomatic nurse while providing nursing care in close contact, 4) an elderly couple acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection from their presymptomatic relative who was in the 50s during household care at their home, 5) a man acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection from a presymptomatic adult neighbor in an enclosed space with poor ventilation, 6) a presymptomatic man had transmitted infection to another man at a coffee shop while having a discussion on business, and 7) a man in his 50s acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection from a presymptomatic man during 50 minutes of close contact at their office and in a car. These secondary patients had no other likely routes of infection. The interval between the date of symptom onset in the presymptomatic index case and the secondary patient ranged from 2 to 6 days. The incidence rates at the time these infections occurred in the corresponding prefectures ranged from 0.00 to 6.56 cases/1 million person-days.Conclusion　We report the first case of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from a sustained asymptomatic index case in Japan. All secondary patients came into close contact with presymptomatic index cases in areas with poor ventilation.

Just 2% of SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals carry 90% of the virus circulating in communities.

We analyze data from the fall 2020 pandemic response efforts at the University of Colorado Boulder, where more than 72,500 saliva samples were tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) using qRT-PCR. All samples were collected from individuals who reported no symptoms associated with COVID-19 on the day of collection. From these, 1,405 positive cases were identified. The distribution of viral loads within these asymptomatic individuals was indistinguishable from what has been previously observed in symptomatic individuals. Regardless of symptomatic status, ∼50% of individuals who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 seem to be in noninfectious phases of the disease, based on having low viral loads in a range from which live virus has rarely been isolated. We find that, at any given time, just 2% of individuals carry 90% of the virions circulating within communities, serving as viral "supercarriers" and possibly also superspreaders.

Interpreting SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Tests: Common Questions and Answers.

SARS-CoV-2 is the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The spectrum of asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission presents challenges for evaluating SARS-CoV-2 test performance for diagnostic or screening purposes and for interpreting test results. Molecular and antigen tests can detect current SARS-CoV-2 infection and are used to diagnose COVID-19. Clinicians should consider a test's characteristics, test timing in relation to symptom onset, and the pretest probability of disease when interpreting results. Molecular and antigen SARS-CoV-2 tests both have high specificity. However, antigen tests generally have lower sensitivity and thus greater potential for false-negative results. Pretest probability of disease should be based on a patient's exposure to someone with a confirmed or probable case, signs or symptoms of COVID-19, local or population-specific COVID-19 prevalence, and presence of an alternative diagnosis. Using a leaf plot is an efficient way to visualize posttest probability of disease based on estimated pretest probability and the test's sensitivity and specificity. A negative molecular or antigen test result might not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection when pretest probability is high, depending on the test's sensitivity. A symptom-based approach is preferred over a test-based approach for discontinuing isolation precautions for most patients with COVID-19 because prolonged shedding of viral RNA does not necessarily correlate with infectivity. Antibody tests might help identify past SARS-CoV-2 infection if performed two to four weeks after symptom onset; however, because of uncertainty about the extent and durability of postinfection or vaccine-induced immunity, they should not yet be used to infer immunity or guide discontinuation of personal protective measures.

High infectiousness immediately before COVID-19 symptom onset highlights the importance of continued contact tracing.

Background: Understanding changes in infectiousness during SARS-COV-2 infections is critical to assess the effectiveness of public health measures such as contact tracing. Methods: Here, we develop a novel mechanistic approach to infer the infectiousness profile of SARS-COV-2-infected individuals using data from known infector-infectee pairs. We compare estimates of key epidemiological quantities generated using our mechanistic method with analogous estimates generated using previous approaches. Results: The mechanistic method provides an improved fit to data from SARS-CoV-2 infector-infectee pairs compared to commonly used approaches. Our best-fitting model indicates a high proportion of presymptomatic transmissions, with many transmissions occurring shortly before the infector develops symptoms. Conclusions: High infectiousness immediately prior to symptom onset highlights the importance of continued contact tracing until effective vaccines have been distributed widely, even if contacts from a short time window before symptom onset alone are traced. Funding: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

The risk of a person with COVID-19 spreading the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes it to others varies over the course of their infection. Transmission depends both on how much virus is in the infected person's airway and their behaviors, such as whether they wear a mask and how many people they have contact with. Learning more about when people are most infectious would help public health officials stop the spread of the virus. For example, officials can then introduce policies that ensure that people are isolated when they are most infectious. The majority of studies assessing when people with COVID-19 are most infectious so far have assumed that transmission is not linked to when symptoms appear. But that may not be true. After people develop symptoms, they may be more likely to stay home, avoid others, or take other measures that prevent transmission. Using computer modeling and data from previous studies of individuals who infected others with SARS-CoV-2, Hart et al. show that about 65% of virus transmission occurs before symptoms develop. In fact, the computational experiments show the risk of transmission is highest immediately before symptoms develop. This highlights the importance of identifying people exposed to someone infected with the virus and isolating potential recipients before they develop symptoms. This information may help public health officials develop more effective strategies to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2. It may also help scientists develop more accurate models to predict the spread of the virus. However, the computational experiments used data on infections early in the pandemic that may not reflect the current situation. Changes in public health policy, the behavior of individuals and the appearance of new strains of SARS-CoV-2, all affect the timing of transmission. As more recent data become available, Hart et al. plan to explore how characteristics of transmission have changed as the pandemic has progressed.

WHO's Science in 5 on COVID-19: children & COVID-19

Science in 5 series - episode 22 / Are the symptoms of COVID-19 different in children? Do the new variants impact children differently? What can parents do to keep children safe from COVID-19. WHO's Dr Maria Van Kerkhove explains in Science in 5.

Risk Factors Associated With COVID-19 Transmission Among US Air Force Trainees in a Congregant Setting.

Importance: Owing to concerns of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks, many congregant settings are forced to close when cases are detected because there are few data on the risk of different markers of transmission within groups. Objective: To determine whether symptoms and laboratory results on the first day of COVID-19 diagnosis are associated with development of a case cluster in a congregant setting. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of trainees with COVID-19 from May 11 through August 24, 2020, was conducted at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland, the primary site of entry for enlistment in the US Air Force. Symptoms and duration, known contacts, and cycle threshold for trainees diagnosed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction were collected. A cycle threshold value represents the number of nucleic acid amplification cycles that occur before a specimen containing the target material generates a signal greater than the predetermined threshold that defines positivity. Cohorts with 5 or more individuals with COVID-19 infection were defined as clusters. Participants included 10 613 trainees divided into 263 parallel cohorts of 30 to 50 people arriving weekly for 7 weeks of training. Exposures: All trainees were quarantined for 14 days on arrival. Testing was performed on arrival, on day 14, and anytime during training when indicated. Protective measures included universal masking, physical distancing, and rapid isolation of trainees with COVID-19. Main Outcomes and Measures: Association between days of symptoms, specific symptoms, number of symptoms, or cycle threshold values of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 via reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and subsequent transmission within cohorts. Results: In this cohort study of 10 613 US Air Force basic trainees in 263 cohorts, 403 trainees (3%) received a diagnosis of COVID-19 in 129 cohorts (49%). Among trainees with COVID-19 infection, 318 (79%) were men, and the median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 20 (19-23) years; 204 (51%) were symptomatic, and 199 (49%) were asymptomatic. Median (IQR) cycle threshold values were lower in symptomatic trainees compared with asymptomatic trainees (21.2 [18.4-27.60] vs 34.8 [29.3-37.4]; P < .001). Cohorts with clusters of individuals with COVID-19 infection were predominantly men (204 cohorts [89%] vs 114 cohorts [64%]; P < .001), had more symptomatic trainees (146 cohorts [64%] vs 53 cohorts [30%]; P < .001), and had more median (IQR) symptoms per patient (3 [2-5] vs 1 [1-2]; P < .001) compared with cohorts without clusters. Within cohorts, subsequent development of clusters of 5 or more individuals with COVID-19 infection compared with those that did not develop clusters was associated with cohorts that had more symptomatic trainees (31 of 58 trainees [53%] vs 43 of 151 trainees [28%]; P = .001) and lower median (IQR) cycle threshold values (22.3 [18.4-27.3] vs 35.3 [26.5-37.8]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of US Air Force trainees living in a congregant setting during the COVID-19 pandemic, higher numbers of symptoms and lower cycle threshold values were associated with subsequent development of clusters of individuals with COVID-19 infection. These values may be useful if validated in future studies.

Preparing dental schools to refunction safely during the COVID-19 pandemic: an infection prevention and control perspective.

In late 2019 a novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in China and spread throughout the world over a short period of time causing a pandemic of a respiratory disease named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). SARS-CoV-2 is easily transmitted from person to person through respiratory droplets and direct contact. The scarce available data indicate that dental healthcare personnel are at increased risk for acquisition of infection. Following the lockdown lifting, dental schools should be prepared to refunction safely and provide essential educational and healthcare services while protecting their students, patients, and personnel. The generation of aerosols in dental practice, in association with the high-transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 through aerosol-generation procedures, the simultaneous provision of dental services to patients in the same areas, and the fact that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infected persons may transmit the virus, render the implementation of specific infection prevention and control measures imperative for dental schools. Herein we review the few evidence-based data available to guide infection prevention and control measures for COVID-19 in dental schools.

Longitudinal whole-genome based comparison of carriage and infection associated Staphylococcus aureus in northern Australian dialysis clinics.

BACKGROUND: The study objective was to reveal reservoirs potentially leading to Staphylococcus aureus infections in haemodialysis clinic clients in the tropical north of the Australian Northern Territory (NT). This client population are primarily Aboriginal Australians who have a greater burden of ill health than other Australians. Reservoir identification will enhance infection control in this client group, including informing potential S. aureus decolonisation strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study participants were 83 clients of four haemodialysis clinics in the Darwin region of the NT, and 46 clinical staff and researchers who had contact with the clinic clients. The study design was longitudinal, encompassing swabbing of anatomical sites at two month intervals to yield carriage isolates, and also progressive collection of infection isolates. Swab sampling was performed for all participants, and infection isolates collected for dialysis clients only. Analysis was based on the comparison of 139 carriage isolates and 27 infection isolates using whole genome sequencing. Genome comparisons were based on of 20,651 genome-wide orthologous SNPs, presence/absence of the mecA and pvl genes, and inferred multilocus sequence type and clonal complex. Pairs of genomes meeting the definition of "not discriminated" were classed as defining potential transmission events. The primary outcome was instances of potential transmission between a carriage site other than a skin lesion and an infection site, in the same individual. Three such instances were identified. Two involved ST762 (CC1) PVL- MRSA, and one instance ST121 PVL+ MSSA. Three additional instances were identified where the carriage strains were derived from skin lesions. Also identified were six instances of potential transmission of a carriage strains between participants, including transmission of strains between dialysis clients and staff/researchers, and one potential transmission of a clinical strain between participants. There were frequent occurrences of longitudinal persistence of carriage strains in individual participants, and two examples of the same strain causing infection in the same participants at different times. Strains associated with infections and skin lesions were enriched for PVL and mecA in comparison to strains associated with long term carriage. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicated that strains differ with respect to propensity to stably colonise sites such as the nose, and cause skin infections. PVL+ strains were associated with infection and skin lesions and were almost absent from the carriage sites. PVL- MRSA (mainly CC1) strains were associated with infection and also with potential transmission events involving carriage sites, while PVL- MSSA were frequently observed to stably colonise individuals without causing infection, and to be rarely transmitted. Current clinical guidelines for dialysis patients suggest MRSA decolonisation. Implementation in this client group may impact infections by PVL- MRSA, but may have little effect on infection by PVL+ strains. In this study, the PVL+ strains were predominant causes of infection but rarely colonised typical carriage sites such as the nose, and in the case of ST121, were MSSA. The important reservoirs for infection by PVL+ strains appeared to be prior infections.

Após a vacinação é possível ser infectado e ficar assintomático?

Saiba mais em www.vacinaja.sp.gov.br